Ric is officially worried about the market. Not the stock market, he is worried about the Money Market. If you have money in a Money Market account you are not alone. Currently about $3 Trillion are in Money Market Funds in the U.S. $11 Trillion are in Mutual Funds so over 25% is in Money Market Funds. Money Market Funds are in many cases replacing bank accounts as they offer better yield than bank savings and several of the conveniences we have become accustom to. Ric is worried because of the sub prime lending crisis. In most cases it is unknown who owns the mortgages? CMO, CDO, and now SIV have and are being bought by Mutual Funds particularly bond Mutual Funds. It has now come to light many Money Market Funds have been buying these packages of debt securities. Historically Money Market Funds bought very short term things like Treasuries. Lately some have been buying commercial paper or debt issued by corporations. Because of defaults some of the commercial paper is now worth much less than it was bought for. Money Market Funds are (or have been) valued at a Dollar a share and don’t fluctuate. This week Bank of America deposited $600,000,000 of their own money into their Money Market Funds to compensate for the lost value due to SIVs to keep share value at a Dollar. Credit Suisse, Wachovia, Legg Mason, and others have made similar moves. The worst case scenario is estimated Money Market Funds may go to .95 per share which wouldn’t be the end of the World. Ric brings this up to illustrate many investors don’t know what is going on or what is in their Money Market Funds. The fear on Wall Street is if the Funds allow MM funds to be worth less than a Dollar there will be a panic and folks will liquidate accounts. This would damage the credibility of the entire Mutual Fund Industry. Ric is not worried about what he owns or his clients own, they have checked it out and avoided Money Market Funds that bought the risky paper. The Funds he recommends invest almost exclusively in Treasuries. Ric said we all should check out our exposure to the sub prime mess in the Money Market Funds we own. Remember Money Market Funds are not FDIC insured. Some maybe MBIA insured but their stock has fallen off 23% since September and most of that in the last month.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MBI&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=
Ric mentioned a Bank of America ad in the New York Times concerning IRAs. Contrary to popular belief IRA does not stand for Individual Retirement Account but Individual Retirement Arrangement. IRA is based on section 408 of the IRS code. It addresses how one may Individually Arrangement for Retirement. An IRA is not an account. This fundamental point we all need to understand about our retirement savings. An IRA is not an investment but think of it more like a bucket we are allowed to put a certain amount of money each year and get a tax benefit. Once the money is in that bucket you can buy nearly any investment you want. The investment you get is in large part determined on where you get your bucket. Typically if you get your bucket at a bank you are going to be encouraged to buy bank products. If you go to a mutual fund company you can be pretty sure you’ll end up in mutual funds. Going to a brokerage firm could lead to an array of things. Insurance agents will more than likely put your IRA money in an annuity.
Caller asked if his bank Money Market Account was safe from loss in the sub prime crisis. Ric said they are insured by FDIC. Ric suggested anyone that has concerns call the bank, brokerage firm, advisor, or mutual fund and ask what your exposure is. Ask if or to what extent you are invested in SIVs. Many large institutions are so large they will step in a support a loss in Money Market Funds. Lower yielding Money Market accounts don’t necessarily indicate a safety problem but it is a function of a shorter term. The longer out you go the higher yield you can expect.
Caller asked about recent stock market volatility and if Ric thought it better to hold on or capitalize on it. Ric said he doesn’t like either choice. Ric likes to consider every available choice, don’t limit yourself. One should not run away in fear and exit the market or buy things that have been the latest hot trend or sector. Better to sit tight and do nothing and let time in the market work for you. It is not in your best interest to make short term decisions for a long term horizon. This caller is 30 years from retiring and a Ric pointed out worrying about volatility today is not worth worrying about. Does anyone think what you did in 1977 had any impact on what is going on in the market in 2007? Trying to capitalize on every market swing is impossible but by taking a long term view you are going to get rich by default. Ignore the short term noise, buy and hold a well diversified group of good investments for the best long term results. Ric suggested going to his web site and checking on the Guide to Portfolio Selection page for help in building your own properly diverse portfolio. http://www.edelmanfinancial.com/cs/determining_the_right_portfolio_for_you
A series of law suits are underway and more are expected against 401(k) plans. Ric ordinarily isn’t a fan of class action suits but this one is the exception. 401(k) and 403 (b) plans have a series of mutual fund choices. The average retail mutual fund is now charging 3% per year in total expenses. Did you ever notice on your statement are fees disclosed? If you knew the fees were excessive you won’t allow it to happen. We should be seeking to have the option to invest in ETFs that have much lower fees.
Caller has a 401(k) and moving to a new job. He has rolled it over into an IRA. The broker is suggesting converting it into a Roth IRA. Ric said not to do it. It does not increase wealth all it does is accelerate the tax liability. The roll over is easy but selecting the investments within the IRA is what needs to become the focus. Invest in a highly diversified way keeping in mind your goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. In his new Book “The Lies About Money” has a section that will teach you how to invest money effectively.
Caller has a custodial account for her niece and is thinking of changing it to a 529 plan. Either will have an equal effect her financial aid eligibility. Ric likes the idea of moving it to a 529 plan since it converts a taxable account to a tax free account. In this case it is not a big deal since the child needs the money for college in one year. If the child is younger then it is a big deal. Another pitfall of the Custodial accounts is upon age 18 or 21 the child can use the money as they see fit instead of the intended purpose.
Target date funds and lifestyle or life cycle funds are getting criticism. This can’t come soon enough for Ric. It is a fad salesmen are pushing and they frequently leave investors open to undue stock market risk, they are limited in diversity, and suffer weak performance. Compass Institute released a paper saying these type funds have about an 8% gains in up markets and lose7% in down markets, while a properly allocated diverse portfolio will over the long haul will do 16%.
http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071105/FREE/711050339/1009/TOC
Caller owns Fannie Mae and wonders what the definition of decoupling is. Should she keep it or sell it? Ric doesn’t give stock recommendation on the air because it isn’t possible to gather enough information on things like risk tolerance and objectives in a few minutes on the phone. He used the analogy of calling a Doctor and asking for a prescription for a new drug you saw on a TV ad. The Doctor is going to require an office visit to know everything that is going on in your body so they don’t miss anything. Stop looking at the trees and step back and take a look at the forest. Ric would need to know more than the caller owns Fannie Mae. Things like what else they own, what percentage is Fannie of her portfolio total? When will the money be needed, and how much do you have now? Where is all of your money currently invested? Ric warned against the talking heads telling you the next hot tip. Ric shared a quote “If you don’t know who you are Wall Street is a very expensive place to find out” If you are talking to a financial advisor you should be talking more about you and who you are than what you are going to invest in. If you can’t get in during the broadcast you can always cal Ric’s office anytime to get your question answered at 1-888-752-6742.
Caller is torn between whether or not to participate in a deferred comp plan . He is 31 and in a lower tax bracket. The plan has limited choices. Should he invest after tax money in an account where he has a wider selection? Ric said in the 28% and higher tax bracket deductibility makes more sense. Maybe wait until he is in the 28% bracket to enroll. Another aspect, legally in a deferred comp plan the money belongs to the employer, so if they go bankrupt the money is gone. If you do decide to enroll make sure it is a solvent company.
Caller shared a few years ago he helped the small company he works for set up a 401(k) program. They hired firm to manage it and not even the firm they paid disclosed the fees. Ric said one of the tricks they use is using class A shares that have a front end load instead of pooling the money and getting a volume discount that saves everyone money. It is all because the fees don’t show up on the statements and people don’t know what’s going on. The best course of action is to ask about fees, get an accurate answer and get it in writing.
Caller was looking for thoughts on where to invest for both short term and long term. Does he need two accounts? Ric said yes the short term of three years or less bank accounts are the place to be. Longer term the goal is college for his daughter. Ric said to go with a 529 savings plan. He reviewed the advantages of 529 plans.
Caller has $440,000 in his Federal thrift plan and is worried about his allocation it is 60:20:20 in C, F, and I funds and he has a 15 year time horizon. Ric thought it was appropriate. This caller was congratulated for accumulating that sum at age 44, he did it simply by putting aside 10% of his salary since he started working. A great lesson on building wealth slow and steady.
Caller asked why it is better to pay taxes later than sooner. Is it because you will be in a lower bracket later? Ric said no, he is not taking into account future unknown tax rates. It is if you pay taxes now there is les money in your account to grow. As to future tax changes it is best to evaluate things as they change. That is why financial planning is a process and not a product. Make decisions today based on the best available information. On the other hand we are pretty sure capital gains rates will go up in 2010 if not sooner so in this case it makes sense to sell underperforming investments and pay 15% now vs. paying higher rates down the road.
Caller asked the difference between ETFs and HOLDRs. Ric is not a fan of HOLDRs and don’t use them. They only trade in round lots, are far less diversified, and don’t offer any particular benefits to investors. ETFs are more liquid and diverse.
Caller has $68,000 in credit card debt spread over 19 cards. She just received a windfall of $22,000 from her parents with no strings attached but her father did recommend she call Ric and get a plan. Ric said write down all 19 cards and sort them by interest rate. Pay off the highest first and work your way down the list. Ric asked if she was adding to the balance. She was not adding new charges but the interest charges are increasing by more than the monthly payments. The money was spent to supplement an income that went down. Ric’s fear is she won’t change the spending habit and she will pay down the debt and build it right back up again. The cause of the debt is lifestyle, the debt is a symptom. Spending habits need to change.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Ric Edelman radio show recap 11-17-07
Saturday, November 17, 2007
ECRI interview on bloomberg radio
Tom Keene of Bloomberg radio interviewed Lakshman Achuthan on Friday November 16, 2007. I thought it was a very good as it went into greater detail than you often get in a short few minutes on TV.
ECRI is cautious on Europe, indicators show profits, inventories, capital, employment, and interest rates have
All this is to be expected things do not move in a straight line, they have their ups and downs or cycles. Bouts of euphoria and excess pessimism is psychological and that can get tricky. It can be a component of the slowing growth we have ahead of us now.
Despite what is going on in the big economies the developing economies abroad.
The same forecasting techniques used in the manufacturing or over all economy apply to the services sector of our economy. Using coincident and leading services indicators you find it less dramatic but it does ebb and flow. As you near a recession service growth goes to about zero, otherwise services are always growing. They look at over all services by dividing it between financial and non financial. Now leading indicators of financial have fallen to the thirty seven month low. Growth outlook has worsened, it’s not over yet however. That is part of the correction we are dealing with now. Non financial services are slowing but at a much more modest pace. Six out of ten of us work in Non financial services in the
4.16% yield on the ten year treasury indicates recession fears in the markets. Keep in mind the markets don’t always get it right as to where the business cycle is headed so it could merely be a signal of a slowdown. 70% of the time a slowdown is followed by lower inflation. After Katrina the yield on ten year treasuries went below 4%. Could also be a flight to quality and money abroad in Petro Dollars. Speaking of oil the interviewer quoted oil prices and asked if the 200 day moving average gets in the $90s per barrel does it tilt us over the edge? Lakshman said it certainly part of the slowdown story. But, as long as jobs and incomes are there you can make it work. In 2004 and 2005 we had 70% spike in oil and this one is a little bigger so it is more dangerous but it doesn’t mean you have to have a recession.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Ric Edelman radio show recap 11-10-07
Ric opened the show this week sharing a few simple questions a shockingly high percentage of investors got wrong on a survey by Deloitte Consulting. These were investors, not people off the street. One of the questions was; If you had $100 and received 2% interest after one year how much would you have? One out of three got it wrong. He then mentioned the stock market recent downward volatility, pointing out why one uses asset allocation and never recommends 100% in equities. You should also never try getting in and out of the stock market. If you do get out of the stock market where do you deploy the proceeds? Bank savings after inflation and taxes don’t beat the inflation rate. Ric said those properly allocated are not freaking out over recent activity. If you can’t get through to the show as it airs you are welcome to dial 1-888-752-6742 to get any question you may have answered at no cost or obligation.
Ric offered a way to help get through the holiday shopping season debt free. Make a list of all the people you are going to buy gifts. Don’t write down what you are going to buy next to each name, but how much you can spend on each person. Add up the grand total, if it is beyond your means cut the list until you reach a level you can afford. Be sure to include sales, wrapping items, cards and shipping fees in your budget. When you begin shopping withdraw the amount of your budget and buy Travelers checks. Then go to the store without your credit card.
Caller has a pension and 403(b). The pension is going to be discontinued and she will receive some pension benefits when she retires. The 403(b) is changing administrators and will have a match. Her question was should she transfer the 403(b) to the new plan or leave it where it is? Ric recommends an IRA rollover for the old plan to gain more flexibility. In the new plan participate to the maximum to take advantage of matching free money.
Ric warned folks to avoid a new fad on Wall Street. It is called a “One thirty - thirty fund”. It is a mutual fund and invests all your money plus borrows another 30% to invest. Then it shorts another 30% in stocks. It is also known as a long short fund. Ric shared in the last six months money flows in these types of funds have surged 77%.
FINRA has a new rule taking affect in May on variable annuities. Under this new rule brokers are required to consider things like age, income, financial situation, needs, experience, objectives, intended use of annuity, time horizon, existing assets, liquidity needs, risk tolerance, and taxes. You will also need to be informed of the material features of the annuity such as surrender charges, potential tax penalty, fees and costs and market risk. Brokers must then have a reasonable basis that the investor will benefit from the annuity features and do a suitability determination. Those of you that own annuities today, did the person that sold it cover all these and more prior to your purchase? For more info; http://www.finra.org/PressRoom/NewsReleases/2007NewsReleases/P037404
Ric took a call concerning buying life insurance on strangers as a profit making business. Ric does not endorse the practice. He said it is unethical and expects the life insurance industry will have to put a stop to it or it will cease to exist. Premiums are calculated in such a manor that a certain amount of those taking out coverage will let it drop prior to having to pay out benefits. When insurance is issued for money making reasons that policy will not lapse and eventually the insurance company is going to have to pay a benefit. It looks like a good deal in the short run but if it continues either life insurance will get much more costly or it may not be available period. The negative societal effects are why Ric says to avoid these arrangements.
A caller has over time collected a hodge podge of stocks, funds and sector funds. Ric said this can be dangerous, it can be redundant, and in this case he was 100% in equities. Ric recommends other asset classes like bonds, real estate, commodities, international securities and natural resources. The way to go about this is come up with a plan of what your investments should look like. Start by asking your self when you want to retire and how much money do I need at that time. Then allocate your funds accordingly so you earn the rate of return you need to reach your objective.
Caller has an IRA and the beneficiary is a trust and he will be making required minimum distributions next year. Upon his demise he would like to leave the money to his current and second wife. Upon her demise he would like what is left to go to his children by his first marriage. Ric said these are conflicting goals from a tax perspective. Ric suggested a perhaps a more realistic approach might be to let the current wife have the IRA money and go buy a life insurance policy for his children so they get the benefit tax free. Leaving an IRA to a trust is not a good idea from a tax perspective since it needs to be fully paid out over at most a five year period. This maximizes and accelerates the tax liability.
Ric shared the weekly “Mutual Fund Scandal”. Ric said this one is perhaps the most egregious example of fraud and abuse in the retail mutual fund industry. Some managers have been found to be investing their own money the opposite of the way they invest the money in the funds they manage. They often sell stocks in their own personal brokerage account while buying them in the funds they run. Ric said this could be the ultimate conflict of interest.
Caller asked about the pros and cons of variable life insurance. Ric said that was easy there aren’t any pros. They only people that recommend variable life insurance are the people that want to sell it. Like many insurance products it is not bought rather sold. They do pay very high commissions that is the incentive to sell them.
Caller completely in International stocks because it has been doing so well. He wonders if a recession is coming will it be better in a money market or leave it overseas. Ric does not agree with this philosophy it is a form of market timing. Ric asked the caller’s age, which is 42. The money will be invested at least another 20 years. Ric asked if he thought the stock market will be higher 20 years from now. He thought it would be. If the market is going to be higher in 20 years why worry about if there is going to be a recession next year? Why fuss about short term decisions when you are involved in a long term investment environment? What is the point? With market timing approach you need to right each time you make a move or you will hurt yourself. Taking a long term view you only need to be right once in predicting the market will be higher in twenty years. Investing is not a sprint but a marathon. It doesn’t have to be complex or involve a lot of time, knowledge, or initial amount of money.
Caller attend on of Ric’s seminars and has a degree in finance and learned more in two hours from Ric than four years at university. He is having trouble maxing out his thrift savings plan and Roth IRA. Which one is the higher priority? Ric likes the retirement account at work but thinks there has to be a way to do both. If the need to fund the Roth is $4,000 a year, that equates to under a $100 a week. Look to budgeting and cutting out something. The caller then asked Ric to review his allocation. He is 54 years old and retiring in six years. Ric said to call his office where they can look at it greater detail plus include all his other savings and investments to see if you are truly properly allocated and secondly it is impossible to be properly allocated using only the government thrift savings plan. The five choices are not enough to provide a diversified asset allocation.
Caller is considering converting an IRA to a Roth IRA and for this year his marginal tax rate will be 25%. He would like Ric’s opinion on converting up to just under moving into the 28% bracket. It is hard to write that check to the IRS. It is a complicated decision but in the overwhelming majority of cases Ric says it is not worth it. You often end up prepaying the tax, you aren’t lowering your taxes. For some it makes sense as it allows future IRA distributions to be tax free. It doesn’t interfere with social security taxation, doesn’t reduce deductibility of itemized exceptions, and other things that save taxes down the road. Under current rules it might make more sense to wait until 2010. Keep in mind we will have elections between now and then. This is another example of just how hard it is to do long term planning in an environment where the tax and estate rules are changing almost yearly. Make decisions based on the laws in place today not on future expectation because things do change.
Ric shared a tactic credit card companies are “teaching” financial literacy class on college campuses. In this case they got free food as part of the class and of course filling out an application for a credit card. College students are marketing targets for credit cards. Ric said to talk with your kids about this since today the number one reason kids drop out of school is they can’t afford it. Twenty years ago it was only bad grades. Maybe get their credit report and see if or just how much plastic debt they have. It is even a good idea for your three year old to help guard against identity theft.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Bob Brinker Update for November 11, 2007
Allan Coleman reports in the facebook "Bob Brinker Discussion Forum" on today's "Moneytalk with Bob Brinker" that Bob Brinker is still bullish and the S&P500 is in Bob's buy zone:
Record Moneytalk with your computer. It automatically finds a station and records the show for you. No need to stay home tied to your computer. Listen live or listen at your leisure.
Jack Sxxxx asked:
I missed the show today...my computer didn't record it. What did Brinker have to say about the market today?????????????/ Jack
Allan Coleman (no network) replied to Jack's post 21 minutes ago.
Bob didn't mention anything different than he's said in the past , Jack . Bob's first hour commentary was about how wrong the bad news bears have been for years now . The S & P 500 is about where Bob suggested to buy in earlier this summer . Although Bob didn't mention it on today's show , he expects the mid 1600's next year . In short , Bob is still bullish .
Record Moneytalk with your computer. It automatically finds a station and records the show for you. No need to stay home tied to your computer. Listen live or listen at your leisure.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Does The Stock Market Follow The Business Cycle?
"Looking ahead, we're facing a broad based slowdown in economic growth, but have plenty of room to slow without slipping into recession"
By Lakshman Achuthan
(This is one in a series of occasional opinion columns by market participants.)
NEW YORK (Dow Jones: 3-November-2007)--Last February, U.S. stocks suffered their worst one-day loss since September 2001, prompted by a major sell-off in Chinese stocks, higher oil prices and concern about housing and subprime lending. The drop in stock prices was blamed in part on former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan's assessment of a one-third probability of a U.S. recession this year.
Since then we've seen a considerable rise in recession probability banter. But when someone says they see a 50% chance of recession aren't they simply saying they're clueless about whether a recession is likely? A coin flip would be just as useful. Is there any objective evidence to support this recession fear? And to what extent are stock price downturns linked to directional shifts in the economy anyway?
Stock Prices and Economic Growth
It is well known that stock prices are an imperfect leading indicator of recessions and recoveries. As the economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped, "The stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions." But in reality, the relationship between economic cycles and stock prices is less erratic than such a comment might imply. Historically, cyclical upswings and downswings in stock prices have almost a one-to-one correspondence with upturns and downturns in economic growth.
ECRI's U.S. Long Leading Index (USLLI) is designed to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy, but the USLLI does not contain stock prices. Because the USLLI has a longer average lead over the economy than stock prices do, peaks and troughs in USLLI growth typically anticipate peaks and troughs in stock prices.
Meanwhile, growth in ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (WLI), designed to anticipate turning points in economic growth, has somewhat shorter leads than the USLLI, and may be used to confirm earlier signals of cyclical turns from USLLI growth.
Because stock prices are included in the WLI, the average lead time of WLI growth over turning points in economic growth is comparable to that of stock prices, though the WLI's leads are more stable.
Cyclical turns in WLI growth have shorter leads than USLLI growth, but longer leads than stock prices, against growth rate cycles. Thus, in terms of the typical sequence of events, USLLI growth turns first, WLI growth confirms those turns, stock prices follow the turns in WLI growth, and finally, cyclical turns in economic growth follow.
ECRI doesn't try to predict stock prices per se, but we can assess stock market risk. This risk is not a constant and really depends on where you are in the business cycle - an issue addressed by the USLLI and WLI.
For example, right now, things are not as risky as, say, in late 2000, but we've moved into a riskier phase of the business cycle than we were in just a few months ago. Depending on your risk profile, you may want to wait for USLLI and WLI growth to turn back up, because that will telegraph the low-risk, high-return phase of the business cycle.
Stock Price Corrections and Economic Cycles
While there is a fairly reliable sequence of cyclical turns in USLLI growth, WLI growth, stock prices and economic growth, there can be exceptions. A key question is whether sharp plunges in stock prices contain useful information about cyclical downturns in economic cycles or represent just noise. To answer this, ECRI examined the daily S&P 500 Index since 1950 and calculated the percent drop in each correction. Then, we collected the declines that measured at least 5%, approximating the size of the drop early this year. Remarkably, we found that three-quarters of the 84 such corrections (before 2007) in stock prices occurred during periods following USLLI and WLI growth downturns.
This relationship held in early 2007, as the USLLI and WLI had turned up, suggesting that the 6% February drop in stock prices was not a harbinger of weaker growth ahead.
Fast forward eight months and we all know that GDP rose 3.8% in the second and 3.9% in the third quarter, while stock prices recovered their February losses and are up almost 8% this year.
The Price of Crying Wolf
Basically, stock market corrections tend to be larger and nastier in certain phases of the business cycle, like when our leading indexes point to slowing growth. That slowing phase of the cycle has reemerged as a result of fresh downturns in the ECRI leading indexes beginning this summer. Some of the blame for this downturn goes to poor recession forecasting.
For over a year dire recession predictions have garnered headlines, despite objective data to the contrary. The fact is that median real home prices, which have been at the epicenter of growth concerns, stopped falling and rose from September 2006 through March of 2007, while GDP rebounded to above trend in the second quarter.
These realities blindsided Wall Street, forcing major houses to slash their 2007 rate cut forecasts last June from a range of 75 to 100 basis points to zero.
For adjustable rate mortgages due to be reset in the coming months, the likelihood of rates staying high was bad news that reduced their worth, especially in the subprime category. Thus, the abrupt invalidation of pessimistic projections helped precipitate the credit crisis. This in turn has had a material impact on economic fundamentals, contributing to renewed weakness in both the home price outlook and the broader economy.
Knowing the Nuances
For the past half a year, GDP measures show the economy growing solidly above trend. In the third quarter, the same report shows inflation falling to a 44-year low. That was a textbook Goldilocks economy.
Looking ahead, we're facing a broad based slowdown in economic growth, but have plenty of room to slow without slipping into recession. Most importantly, the objective ECRI leading indexes that correctly forecast past recessions - in real-time and without false alarms - remain above past recessionary readings.
Also, it is significant that the Fed has cut 75 basis points in six weeks. While the credit crisis is certainly a major concern, most observers underestimate the extent of receding underlying inflationary pressures. This means the Fed has more leeway to cut rates to alleviate the home price downturn and broader economic slowdown.
These are the nuances of the current U.S. growth rate cycle slowdown. One thing is for sure. The path of the USLLI and WLI will change, and we'll change our tune accordingly, because ECRI's outlook is not based on gut feel, but rather an objective reading of the fundamental drivers of the business cycle. This approach has kept us from being blindsided by recessions for many, many years.
-By Lakshman Achuthan; lakshman@businesscycle.com
Lakshman Achuthan is the managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, (ECRI), an independent organization focused on business cycle research and forecasting in the tradition established by Geoffrey H. Moore. Lakshman is the managing editor of ECRI's publications, a member of Time magazine's board of economists, the Levy Institute's Board of Governors and the New York City Economic Advisory Panel. He is co-author of "Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy" published by Doubleday. Opinions expressed are those of the author not of Dow Jones Newswires
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