wrote
S&P operating earnings estimates as posted by S&P for ‘08 and ’09.Operating earnings estimates drifted over the past 2 weeks as few companies are now reporting. It is just drips and drabs right now. Reporting will pickup in earnest about the middle of July.
.....…………....2008………2009
08/07/2007…106.59 <-------2008 high
…
01/14/2008…100.32
01/22/2008….99.21
01/29.2008….99.00
02/05/2008….99.86
02/12/2008….99.51
02/19/2008….98.99
02/26/2008….98.63
03/04/2008….96.55
03/11/2008….96.71
03/18/2008….96.42
03/25/2008….96.26
03/31/2008….96.74
04/10/2008….96.79……115.42
04/16/2008….93.62……113.30
04/22/2008….92.31……112.17
04/28/2008….91.69……111.81
05/06/2008….90.91……110.29
05/13/2008….89.43……110.44
05/20/2008….89.29……109.53
05/27/2008….89.07……108.98
06/03/2008….89.27……109.04
06/10/2008….89.38……110.19
06/16/2008….89.03……109.94
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At Brinker's 16 to 17 times operating earnings, applying it to the S&P 6/16 estimate places the value for 2008 now at 1424 to 1514, and 2009 at 1759 to 1869. (FYI, the 2006 actual earnings were 87.72 and 2007 actual earnings were 82.54)
- Kirk Comment: 16 x $89.03 = $1,424.48
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Brinker said on Saturday April 5, 2008: “My number for the S&P 500 for 2008 is way below, way below the Wall Street number for 2008.” LOL, see Kirks comments
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Bob Norton's Evergreen was last reported on May 19, 2008 “we continue to project flat earnings ($85.00) for the full year and would consider the S&P 500 to be fairly valued within the range of 1450 by year end.” At 16 to 17 times earnings, 85.00 for 2008 would give a range of 1360 to 1445. In June, they reconfirmed holding at this estimate.
John Mauldin commented in "Outside the Box" that : "As if this wasn't bad enough, in the past we have shown that analysts tend to be around about 10% too optimistic in their year-ahead forecasts of the earnings level. However, in recession years this jumps to 30% too optimistic. "
See Normxxx’s interesting posting “The Real P/E Ratio” here:
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