S&P500 Operating Earnings Estimates

Runner Twentysix posted this recap today in our Bob Brinker Discussion Forum on Facebook.

S&P operating earnings estimates as posted by S&P for ‘08 and ’09.

Earnings continue their long running decline.

............ 2008………2009
8/7/2007...106.59 <-------2008 high …
01/14/2008.100.32
01/22/2008..99.21
01/29.2008….99.00
02/05/2008….99.86
02/12/2008….99.51
02/19/2008….98.99
02/26/2008….98.63
03/04/2008….96.55
03/11/2008….96.71
03/18/2008….96.42
03/25/2008….96.26
03/31/2008….96.74
04/10/2008….96.79……115.42
04/16/2009….93.62……113.30
04/22/2008….92.31……112.17

At Brinkers 16 to 17 times operating earnings, applying it to the S&P 4/22 estimate places the value for 2008 now at 1477 to 1569, and 2009 at 1795 to 19062. (FYI, the 2006 actual earnings were 87.72 and 2007 actual earnings were 82.54)

The ‘Word” is that Bob is projecting 1600 near the end of ’08 or into ’09. On 4/6/08, he stated on the show that he expected record highs near the end of ’08, which means 1565.15 on a closing basis, as Bob mentioned this number on his show.

Brinker said on Saturday April 5, 2008: “My number for the S&P 500 for 2008 is way below, way below the Wall Street number for 2008.” LOL, see Kirks comments "Bob Brinker's 2008 Operating Earnings Estimates"

Bob Norton's Evergreen was last reported at 85.00 for 2008, which would give a range of 1360 to 1445, which may be more realistic.

John Mauldin commented in "Outside the Box" that : "As if this wasn't bad enough, in the past we have shown that analysts tend to be around about 10% too optimistic in their year-ahead forecasts of the earnings level. However, in recession years this jumps to 30% too optimistic. "

See Normxxx’s interesting posting “The Real P/E Ratio”
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